Articles
Pieces on how broiler cycle indicators are computed: where they go wrong, what decisions they drive when they do, and how to check it against the data you already hold.
A dashboard tells you what happened. The next decade turns on what gets decided tomorrow
A recent interview describes, from the genetics side, the same gap I found coming in from the building side: Latin American poultry is not short of grain, craft or market. It is short of the layer that turns data into a decision. Here is what I think comes next, and why.
Nine EPEF points for one day: age is at catch, not at processing
Birds travel and the plant processes them the next day. EPEF divides by age, so that extra day costs nine points over a 39.4-day cycle. The error has a signature: exact conversion with a biased EPEF.
Thinning is not mortality, and your EPEF knows it
Computing mortality as birds placed minus birds alive turns every staggered catch into an apparent disaster. A flock at 4.75% real shows 23.97%, and no screen breaks.
A forecast without a band is not a forecast: it is an opinion with decimals
A bare number invites belief. A number with a band states how much is known and how much is not, and lets you check afterwards whether the band was right as often as it promised.
